And it is folly to think that a chaotic, crisis-driven retreat from globalisation will not introduce more – and vastly more serious – problems.Even the US, with its highly diversified economy, world-leading technology, and strong natural-resource base, could suffer a significant decline in real GDP as a result of deglobalisation.

To be sure, the current model of globalisation needs adjusting, particularly by greatly strengthening the social safety net in advanced economies and – to the extent possible – in emerging markets, too. It will be even harder to Last but not least, although Covid-19 has so far hit Europe and the US harder than it has most lower-income countries, there is still a huge risk of a Even if the US turns a blind eye to deglobalisation’s effects on the rest of the world, it should remember that the current abundant demand for dollar assets depends heavily on the vast trade and financial system that some American politicians aim to shrink.

We need to stop them from setting a dangerous precedent We must target public spending on green, labour intensive projects which have far more bang for their bucks than tax cutsThe global economy must not suffer the consequences of the US doing too little, too late

The US has more to lose from rising economic nationalism than some of its politicians … global.penguinrandomhouse.com He was soon recognised as a chess prodigy.

Kenneth Rogoff’s thoughts … Deglobalization will hurt growth everywhere. In This Review In This Review Sovereign Debt: A Guide for Economists and Practitioners. But building resilience does not mean tearing down the entire system and starting over again.The US has more to lose from deglobalisation than some of its politicians, on both the right and the left, seem to realise. 464 pp, International Monetary Fund, 2019. 0. Get a link. © 2020 Guardian News & Media Limited or its affiliated companies. For starters, the global trading system is part of a compact whereby the US gets to be the hegemon in a world where most countries, including China, have a stake in making the international order work.Aside from its political ramifications, deglobalization also poses economic risks to America. Die WELT als ePaper: Die vollständige Ausgabe steht Ihnen bereits am Vorabend zur Verfügung – so sind Sie immer hochaktuell informiert. „Die USA sollten eine Billion Dollar ausgeben, ohne mit der Wimper zu zucken – und das ist vermutlich nur der erste Schritt. This article is more than 2 months old. Share on Facebook. Penguin Books Australia A Penguin Random House Company. Sollte es krachen, müsse die deutsche Bundesregierung dringend investieren und auch unpopuläre Renten-Maßnahmen ergreifen. Kenneth Rogoff .

Send by email. Der IWF blickt so pessimistisch auf die Welt wie nie zuvor„Zur Not zahlen wir die Schulden mit Beiträgen der Mitgliedsländer zurück“„Wir müssen uns zusammentun, sonst wird Europa ein Vasall Chinas“

In particular, many of the benign factors that today allow the US government and American corporations to borrow vastly more than any other country are likely tied to the dollar’s role at the centre of the system. The post-pandemic world economy seems likely to be a far less globalized economy, with political leaders and publics rejecting openness in a manner unlike anything seen since the tariff wars and competitive devaluations of the 1930s. All rights reserved. Trade competition has hammered low-wage workers in some sectors, even while making goods less expensive for everyone. Im WELT-Interview gilt die Sorge des Schachgroßmeisters und früheren IWF-Chefvolkswirts vor allem China und den Auswirkungen einer globalen Krise auf andere große Ökonomien wie Deutschland. Kenneth Saul Rogoff learned chess from his father at age six, but only took up the game in earnest when he received a chess set for his 13th birthday. Purchase . June 4, 2020. Edited By S. Ali Abbas, Alex Pienkowski, and Kenneth Rogoff. For smaller economies and developing countries that are unable to reach critical mass in many sectors and often lack natural resources, a breakdown in trade would reverse many decades of growth. It’s been a very intense period partly because I was teaching a lot. Weitere Informationen: http://epaper.welt.de Der Kurz-Link dieses Artikels lautet: https://www.welt.de/187554436 Registrieren Sie sich kostenlos für Leserkommentare, Newsletter und exklusive Abo-Inhalte.Registrieren Sie sich kostenlos für Leserkommentare, Newsletter und exklusive Abo-Inhalte. The US has more to lose from rising economic nationalism than some of its politicians realiseThe current retreat began with Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 US presidential election, which led to tariff wars between the US and China.

Just as globalisation has been a major driver of today’s low inflation and interest rates, shifting the process into reverse could eventually push prices and rates in the other direction, especially given what appears to be a lasting adverse supply shock from Covid-19.Needless to say, there are other battles ahead requiring international cooperation, not least climate change. Save Share on Twitter. Kenneth Rogoff war Chefvolkswirt des IWF und ist Schachgroßmeister China ist eine noch immer unterschätzte Gefahr für die Weltwirtschaft, glaubt der Harvard-Starökonom Kenneth Rogoff. And a wide array of That would hardly be ideal at a time when the US needs to borrow massively in order to preserve social, economic, and political stability. By age 14, he was a USCF master and New York State Open Champion, and shortly thereafter became a senior master, the highest US national title. If deglobalisation goes too far, no country will be spared.Coronavirus has accelerated the shift away from banknotes – central banks must act fast to catch upJoseph Stiglitz, Robert Howse and Anne-Marie SlaughterVulture funds want to change Argentina’s debt structure.

Cambridge (dts Nachrichtenagentur) – Der Harvard-Ökonom Kenneth Rogoff fürchtet angesichts der weltweiten „Lockdowns“ im Kampf gegen das Coronavirus eine neue Weltwirtschaftskrise und fordert die Regierungen zu größeren Hilfspaketen auf. KENNETH ROGOFF: I’m with my wife and 21-year-old daughter in our house in Cambridge, quarantining, so to speak. Print this article.